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MARK HENCKEL COLUMN Doom and gloom a bit premature Facts, figures show Yellowstone elk are doing nicely Talk of doom and gloom spread far and wide across Montana in the wake of last fall's regular elk season and the late hunt at Gardiner. "The elk calves are all gone," some hunters said. "The wolves have decimated the whole elk population," others said. "The Gardiner hunt is going to be canceled," said still other hunters.
The elk herd is almost exactly the same size as it was a winter ago. Cow-calf ratios were actually quite a bit higher this year than they were a year ago. And both hunting success and the number of elk migrating out of Yellowstone are at very healthy levels. That's the report from Tom Lemke, wildlife biologist with the Department of Fish, Wildlife and Parks at Livingston, after looking at various statistics that measure the health of the Northern Yellowstone Elk Herd and the status of the Gardiner late season hunt. "Cow-calf ratios aren't nearly as bad as they were rumored to be," Lemke said. "We flew helicopter elk classification flights (to determine cow-calf ratios) in late February and early March. John Mack, from the Park Service, was the observer. "We classified 4,086 elk and found we had an average of 34 calves per 100 cows. In the past, since the early 1970s, it has ranged anywhere from 17 as a low to 48 as a high," he said. "Last year's cow-calf ratio was 22, so it has actually improved somewhat."
"We continue to see the same trend in terms of calves per 100 cows on different portions of the winter range," he said. "The lowest ratios occur in the upper Lamar (River valley) at 16 calves per 100 cows. They improve as you go to the middle Lamar, the lower Lamar and outside the park. Outside the park, it's the highest at 47 calves per 100 cows." Lemke feels that some observations of those elk further inside the park may have been what led to the rumors that all the elk calves were gone. "It may have stemmed from some ground surveys done in the heart of wolf pack territories. You might expect cow-calf ratios to be lower there. But at this point in time, you can't extrapolate those low numbers across the entire winter range," he said. "Also, it also isn't only the wolf factor. It's the environment in the upper Lamar, too. Even before the wolves were there, we saw this trend," he said. In terms of overall numbers, he said that the Northern Yellowstone Herd was at a lower level than it was in the mid-1990s, before wolves became widespread and the severe winter of 1996-97 took a heavy toll, but it wasn't necessarily declining. "The herd has gone down to the 10,000 to 12,000 range from the 18,000 to 20,000 range we saw in the mid-1990s," Lemke said. "But that's not all bad. If elk numbers can be maintained at a lower level for a long period of time, perhaps we'll see the vegetation respond positively. That's going to benefit a lot of species, including elk, in the long run." Lemke said the elk counts in the past two winters have been almost exactly the same. On Jan. 27, 1998, observers counted 11,692 elk. On Feb. 11, 1999, observers counted 11,742 elk. "The concern that this is going to mark the end of the Gardiner late hunt and that the Northern Yellowstone Herd is going to collapse is an over-exaggeration," he said. "Everyone is going to have to live with lower elk numbers, but in terms of the number of permits we issue, that's going to depend on how many migrate out of the park." Lemke said the elk migration remains healthy and hunter success in the late hunt is also very good. "We're still seeing good numbers of elk migrate out of the park. This year, at a minimum, it was a physical count of 6,030 elk. That compares to last year's minimum of 5,296," he said. "In the last 10 years, we're seeing an average of 5,000 to 6,000 elk coming out and that's what we're basing permit levels and our elk management on," Lemke said. "As long as we're seeing 5,000 to 6,000 elk coming out, we'll be issuing 2,500 to 3,000 permits." Hunter success during this year's Gardiner late hunt, he noted, was 71 percent - higher than the long-term average of 60 percent. What might the long-term effect of the area's wolf population on elk be? That's still anyone's guess, but wolves increasing in numbers and fanning out from Yellowstone are already a fact of life. "Hunters saw wolves everywhere during the late hunt, from Dome Mountain (near Emigrant) all the way to the park boundary," Lemke said. "They're part of the environment now and they're using areas north of the park more frequently." Wolves have been reported all up and down Paradise Valley this winter, from areas close to the park clear to just south of Livingston. Lemke said there were also two sightings of a black wolf recently near Wilsall, which lies between the Bridger and Crazy Mountain ranges. "In Idaho and Montana, we have potentially 125 young wolves that are going to be looking for a place to live and they're going to turn up just about everywhere," he said. "The majority of them don't have radio collars and they never will. People shouldn't be surprised to see a wolf traveling through or turning up just about anywhere." But for now anyway, reports of doom and gloom for the Northern Yellowstone Elk Herd and the late hunt at Gardiner aren't borne out by the figures and facts. "We hear a lot of questions and concerns from hunters that the hunt is going to end and the elk are going to disappear," Lemke said. "But that's just not the case. The elk are at lower numbers, but they're still doing pretty well."
Mark Henckel is the outdoor editor of The Billings Gazette. His columns appear Thursdays and Sundays. He can be contacted by phone at: (406) 657-1395, or by e-mail at: henckel@bsw.net
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