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Burns leads, Schweitzer closes gap By KATHLEEN McLAUGHLIN Gazette State Bureau HELENA – Republican U.S. Sen. Conrad Burns maintains a comfortable lead in his re-election quest, but Democratic challenger Brian Schweitzer has narrowed the gap dramatically in the past four months, a new poll conducted for The Gazette and the other Lee Newspapers of Montana indicates.
If the election were held now, Burns would take 48 percent of the vote, compared with Schweitzer’s 39 percent, the survey shows. Another 12 percent of voters are undecided and Gary Lee of the Reform Party would take a mere 1 percent of the vote. While the incumbent Burns still leads by a wide margin, his advantage has been slashed in half since May. A similar survey before the primary election showed Burns with 54 percent of the vote, to Schweitzer’s 30 percent. The past two months have seen a major push in advertising from both sides in the U.S. Senate race. Burns, who is seeking a third term in the Senate, is now mired in a ferocious fight with Schweitzer for the seat. In this latest telephone survey, Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., of Washington, D.C., queried 625 registered Montana voters Sept. 21-23. The poll results carry a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Burns does better among men than women, but still holds his own with female voters. The poll indicates that of the men surveyed, 53 percent support Burns, 36 percent favor Schweitzer, 1 percent prefer Lee and 10 percent are undecided. Among women, 43 percent support Burns, 42 percent would vote for Schweitzer, 1 percent favor Lee and 14 percent remain undecided. Schweitzer, 45, a Whitefish farmer, shows strength in Western Montana, while Burns, 65, a former Billings broadcaster, holds sway in Eastern Montana. The regional poll results, which contain a much greater margin of error, show that in Eastern Montana area, 58 percent of voters prefer Burns and 31 percent favor Schweitzer. In the Billings area, Burns has 52 percent and Schweitzer has 37 percent of voters’ support. In Great Falls, 50 percent of those polled support Burns and 37 percent favor Schweitzer. Meanwhile, in Butte-Helena-Bozeman area, Schweitzer carries 45 percent to Burns’ 43 percent. In the Missoula-Kalispell area, 44 percent of voters prefer Burns and 40 percent give the nod to Schweitzer. Today, Schweitzer is far more widely known than he was this spring. In May, the poll showed that a full 35 percent of voters didn’t know recognize Schweitzer’s name. Today, only 11 percent of voters don’t know Brain Schweitzer. Another 37 percent recognized Schweitzer’s name and had a favorable opinion of him, compared with 19 percent in May. Currently, 19 percent know his name and have an unfavorable association, compared with 10 percent in May. The rest of the people polled know Schweitzer’s name and are neutral. Only 1 percent of voters don’t recognize the name of Burns. His favorable ratings dropped somewhat in this poll – from 54 percent in May to 46 percent now. The percentage of voters with unfavorable opinions of Burns slight increased – to 32 percent from 23 percent in May. Overall, 50 percent of voters ranked Burns’ job performance as excellent or good, while 40 percent gave him a score of fair or poor.
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