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Keenan holds edge in race for House seat By ERIN P. BILLINGS Gazette State Bureau HELENA – Democrat Nancy Keenan appears to lead Republican Dennis Rehberg by a razor-thin margin in the race for Montana’s lone U.S. House seat, a new poll for The Gazette and other Lee Newspapers shows.
Of the 625 registered Montana voters surveyed, 45 percent said that if the Nov. 7 election were held today, they would choose Keenan, while 40 percent would select Rehberg. One percent said they would vote for Libertarian Jack Tikalsky and 14 percent said they were unsure. Keenan is said to be appearing to lead Rehberg in the poll because under Associated Press guidelines, only when a candidate’s advantage is twice the margin of error can it be said that person is officially leading. In this case, the margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points. The telephone survey was conducted Sept. 21-23 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C. The latest poll numbers show that Keenan has gained a slight edge over Rehberg in the last few months. In a similar Gazette State Poll taken in May, 43 percent of those surveyed favored Keenan, while 41 percent said they would vote for Rehberg. Fourteen percent didn’t know. Keenan, state superintendent of public instruction; Rehberg, a Billings rancher; and Tikalsky, a Laurel retail store employee, all are vying to replace Rep. Rick Hill, R-Mont., who is not seeking re-election. The seat is one of the most closely watched nationally, not only because it is an open seat lacking an incumbent, but because the future political balance of the U.S. House is at stake. Because of a typographical error, Tikalsky’s name was misspelled as “Titalsky” in the poll. The new Lee poll shows that Rehberg holds more support among men, while Keenan gets more support from women. Of men polled, 45 percent of said they would choose Rehberg, while 42 percent of men would favor Keenan. Among women, 48 percent would select Keenan and only 35 percent would favor Rehberg. Keenan, an Anaconda native, shows most of her strength in the Butte and Helena area, while Rehberg, a Billings native, holds most favor in his hometown and Eastern Montana. The regional poll results, which hold a much larger margin of error, show that in Eastern Montana 46 percent of those polled favor Rehberg compared with 42 percent who prefer Keenan. In the Billings area, Rehberg has 50 percent of voters’ support, and Keenan has 40 percent. In the Great Falls area, 44 percent of those surveyed prefer Rehberg, while 41 percent like Keenan. The tide shifts toward Keenan as the vote moves west. In the Butte-Helena-Bozeman area, Keenan holds 54 percent of the support to Rehberg’s 32 percent. In Missoula and Kalispell, Keenan is backed by 44 percent of those polled compared to Rehberg’s 38 percent. Both Keenan and Rehberg are well known in Montana. Overall, 96 percent of those polled recognize Keenan by name, 44 percent of them favorably. Of those, 23 percent recognize Keenan unfavorably and 29 percent recognize her neutrally. As for Rehberg, 90 percent of those interviewed recognize him by name, 38 percent favorably. Twenty percent of those knowing his name recognize Rehberg unfavorably and 32 percent are neutral.
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